BItcoin (BTC) is on track to see its worst performance in August since the bear market of 2015, and next month could be even worse.
Data from onchain analytics resource Coinglass shows that BTC/USD hasn’t had such a bad August in seven years.
September means average BTC price losses of 5.9%.
After two major BTC price drops in recent weeks, Bitcoin owners are understandably scared, but historically, September has performed even worse than August.
At $20,000, BTC/USD is down 14% this month, making this August the biggest loser since 2015, when the pair posted an 18.67% monthly red candle.
The years since have shown that August can be a mixed bag in terms of BTC price performance: in 2017, for example, the largest cryptocurrency gained more than 65% in a bullish record.
One month that has left no one guessing when it comes to the likely direction of prices, however, is September. Already famous as a “red” month for Bitcoin, average losses since Coinglass records began in 2013 have been nearly 6%.
Historically the month of September
‘September’
— Trader_J (@Trader_Jibon) August 26, 2022
This time, macroinstability combines with tradition to deliver gloomy analyst projections.
“The equity market in general is not looking good right now, so this drop in $BTC is a reflection of that,” said trader Josh Rager. summarized as Bitcoin threatened $20,000 support.
“September in general is historically not a great month. Possibly a little bit here that ends up being an opportunity for buyers for the following months. I’ll be a longterm spot buyer under $20,000.”
Rager continued a debate about the likelihood that bitcoins from the rehabilitation process of Mt. Gox were sold off massively by creditors to receive them after an eightyear wait. Like Cointelegraph reportedmany believe this event will not occur, with fears to the contrary unfounded.
The monthly chart “looks very ugly”
As for the monthly close, jittery commentators focused on whether Bitcoin could avoid a monthly candle ending below $20,000.
Related: Why September is shaping up to be a potentially ugly month for the price of Bitcoin
If it doesn’t, BTC/USD would rival June in terms of lows absent from the chart since late 2020.
Worse, such an event could lead to a snowball selloff, a concerned Galaxy Trading warned Twitter followers over the weekend.
“On a monthly TF things look very ugly,” he said he wrote on the day.
“If in 3 days the monthly candle closes below 20k this could trigger a big sell off at least 14k where the next big support is. The reason is near below 19900 means a bearish candle that in a big TF it’s really bad.”
A substantial move below $20,000 would violate an existing pivot zone from the first move above that level in 2020, as noted by Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics.
“Bitcoin looks poised for a deeper retest of the key pivot range, identified using the December 2017 monthly wick and close. This range acted as perfect resistance in 2019, acting as a platform for launch in 2020 and has been trying to act as a support in 2022,” he explained on the monthly chart.
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