Ukrainians are likely to experience their coldest winter in decades, their gas chief has said, as the thermostats in their Sovietera central heating systems turn on and off later.
Yurii Vitrenko, the head of state gas company Naftogaz, said indoor temperatures would settle at 1718C, about four degrees below normal, and advised people to stock up on blankets and warm clothes for when the outside temperature drops below the winter average of 10ºC.
The “heating season,” the period when the central heating is on, will come later and end earlier, Vitrenko said.
The goal is dependent on Ukraine’s international allies giving it the necessary funds to import 4 billion cubic meters of gas, as well as no games, such as Russia destroying the gas infrastructure or reducing it further plus its gas supply to Europe.
“Without him [western] financial support we will lack gas and will assume that we will have very high risks for the electricity system [going] low,” Vitrenko said. He described how Naftogaz supported some of Ukraine’s power companies with gas in March when coal supplies were halted by the war. “[Otherwise] there would have been no electricity,” he said.
“[Without the gas imports]there will be blackouts in large parts of Ukraine,” Vitrenko said. “In terms of heating, if we don’t have this 2 billion cbm of gas, that will mean that some of the households will not have enough heating … so it will too cold.”
Ukraine produces around 60% of the gas it needs domestically and imports the rest from its European Union neighbors at market prices. The country stopped buying gas from Russia directly in 2014, although it still consumes much of the same Russian gas that arrives via pipelines through Ukraine from EU suppliers.
This system of roundabouts was devised to prevent Russia from using gas as a tool to influence Ukraine. Gas contracts between Russia and Ukraine have long been a source of massive corruption, with Ukrainian politicians and oligarchs allowing Russia to dominate the country’s internal affairs in exchange for cheap gas.
Ukraine needs about $10 billion to import gas. Vitrenko said he thought his allies understood the need, but he couldn’t be sure Ukraine would get the funds because “it’s very difficult to have confidence during a war.”
The current calculus could change, however, if, for example, Russia targets any of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure, power plants or gas production facilities. About 50% of Ukraine’s gas fields are located in the Kharkiv region, four miles from the front lines. If this or Ukraine’s storage facilities were damaged, Ukraine would have to import more gas.
Another muchdiscussed risk is if Russia decides to further reduce gas supplies to the EU, making the cost of gas even more expensive. Russia cut supplies to the EU earlier this year, which sharply increased gas and electricity prices in some countries, including the UK.
“The world is experiencing the first truly global energy crisis in history,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, wrote last month. “The situation is particularly dangerous in Europe, which is at the epicenter of the energy market turbulence.”
Ukraine’s state gas company defaulted on creditors in July, saying the war had left many of its customers unable to pay their bills. Normally, Vitrenko said, Ukraine’s state gas company would buy gas from the EU and sell it at a profit. But given rising prices and endemic unemployment caused by the war, Ukraine will have to subsidize energy prices this year.
Russia has targeted critical energy infrastructure since February, including oil refineries and power plants. In the event that gas infrastructure or gas production facilities are targeted, Ukraine is preparing emergency kits that could serve up to 200,000 people, including mobile boilers, mobile heating units and generators. diesel power
“If a big city like Kyiv or Kharkiv [is cut off]of couse, [the kits] it won’t be enough, but in some small towns these emergency kits will make a difference,” Vitrenko said. “It all depends on the extent of the damage.”